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Subtropical Low to Cause Problems for New England?

 
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philnyc



Joined: 23 Sep 2007
Posts: 2819
Location: Brooklyn, New York

PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 01:02 am    Post subject: Subtropical Low to Cause Problems for New England? Reply with quote

The developing low pressure currently over the Bahamas has been tagged by the NHC as having a 50% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next 24 hours as it starts to move northward. It will be interesting to watch since this hybrid TC is forecast by most models, including the Euro and GFS, to get near or over TS strength and then move NNW and merge into the strong cold front and 500 mb trough approaching the east coast tomorrow. This will inject a lot of tropical moisture and baroclinic energy into a single powerful low that will bomb out over southern New England and provide a serious wind event from NYC/Long Island into all of New England this weekend. That alone is a great reason to watch the evolution of this tropical or subtropical low as it develops tonight and tomorrow. Here's the 18Z GFS forecast. Most other models are producing similar output. Look at the resulting pressure gradient!


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fcst gfs 2016-10-20 1800 for 2016-10-21 0600.png



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fcst gfs 2016-10-20 1800 for 2016-10-21 1800.png



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fcst gfs 2016-10-20 1800 for 2016-10-22 0600.png



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fcst gfs 2016-10-20 1800 for 2016-10-22 1800.png



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